KAMPALA, Uganda (Dow Jones)--Global robusta coffee production is expected to continue on a downward trend over the next couple of years due to production disruptions in the world's top three producers and shrinking output in smaller producers, the head of analysis and research at the Coffee Network told the 5th African Fine coffee conference in Kampala.

Andrea Thompson said current trends in robusta coffee production are insufficient to halt the ongoing price rally and prices are expected to keep rising over the next couple of years, propelled by heavy fund and speculative buying.

Thompson said production in Vietnam, the world's leading robusta producer, is being hampered by rising labor costs and increasing energy prices. In addition, robusta coffee consumption in countries like Vietnam, Cost Rica and Brazil has been on the rise, helping keep supplies tight.

The world's top three coffee producers - Brazil, Colombia and Vietnam - have all been rehabilitating coffee plantations and increased tree numbers, but haven't expanded coffee acreage. In small African and South American robusta coffee producers production is shrinking and this is expected to continue.

Thompson said global output is expected to experience a surplus in 2008-09, but this isn't likely to halt the price rally.

Global robusta prices are current at their highest levels in 11 years. Africa accounts for around 16% of the global coffee exports but a bulk of this is Arabica. Production in the leading robusta producers of Uganda and Ivory Coast have been hit by insurgency and the coffee wilt disease respectively.

According to data from International Coffee Organization, global coffee output is expected to reach between 123-126 million bags in 2007-08.

-Nicholas Bariyo, contributing to Dow Jones Newswires; 256-75-2624615; bariyonic@yahoo.co.uk

(END) Dow Jones Newswires