As reported, Tristao pegged Brazilian crop 2008/09 at 53.0 million bags, which would represent an increase of 32.5% from the previous crop, estimated at 40 million bags. Tristao estimates pose a significant challenge to official data.

The gap between Tristao and Conab data for Brazilian crop 2008/09 is a whopping 10 million bags. The exporter explained that Brazilian production this year might be similar or higher than 2002/03, estimated by Tristao at 53.2 million bags. The executive tried to prove, through consolidated data, that coffee disappearance in Brazil (exports, consumption and stock variation) indicates that production has been superior to official estimates.

Conab estimates Brazilian crop 2008/09 at a median of 42.73 million bags, with a maximum of 44.2 million bags, and crop 2002/03, a record, at 48.48 million bags. Tristao estimates a global demand in 2007/08 at 129.5 million bags, facing a supply of 122.4 million bags, generating a deficit of 7 million bags.


Stocks in importing countries, as a result, dropped from 38.6 million bags in the beginning of 2007/08 crop year to 31.5 million bags in the end of same year. For 2008/09, Tristao estimates a world supply of 135.4 million bags and a demand of 131.5 million bags, with an excess of 3.9 million bags.

Final stocks in importing countries might end crop year 2008/09 at 35.4 million bags. The calendar used by Tristao for coffee crop year runs from April 01 to March 31.

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