ANANAS THAÏLANDE
La récolte d'hiver est décevante par rapport aux prévisions. Celle d'été s'annonce plutôt difficile.
La récolte d'hiver en Thaïlande ne se déroule pas comme prévue. Elle devrait se terminer rapidement par manque de matières premières. En effet, la forte demande des usines a anticipé la fin de production.
As you were informed that winter crop pineapple supply in Thailand was very poor compared to initial expectation. The currently quantity of pineapple supply is decreasing continuously as winter crop is about to end. Average processing for all suppliers drop out very sharpen figure around 30-35% down to packers plan of raw material receiving, either big factories, now running at 200-400 mt/day that very low of their capacity. Demand of fruits remain higher than supply. Fruit prices increased consequently as poor volume and competition among packers. Currently, fruit price level at Baht 6.20/kg. Prices may touch Baht 6.50/kg in few weeks and may touch Baht 7.00/kg eventually.
Main reason that makes demand of pineapple remain high is because all packers foresee that fruit supply will be shortage in Q3 and Q4. So, every packer is now trying to get fruits and pack goods as much as they can, especially for packers who still have backlog orders carried from last year. Besides, poor expansion of new plantation during 2 years and poor crop caused by climate since winter crop year 2006 / 2007 season. It is for sure that supply in Thailand will be limited for Q1 / Q2 . We also foresee that a situation in Q3 and Q4 will be critical too. Summer crop will start and end earlier than usual. The crop will start in March and end around end April which makes a duration between summer and winter crop become longer. Quantity and quality of fruits from summer crop will not be good because of lacking of rain / not good weather conditions in 2nd half of last year till early of this year. Situation of winter crop year 2008 is still unclear. We should have a clear picture in May-June. Not only a problem of fruit supply that packers are facing, but also a problem of an increased in tinplate price (empty can price increased 8-12%, effective starting from Feb’2008) and unstable foreign exchange rate. A situation of tinplate shortage is getting more serious because tinplate suppliers have delay supplying tinplate to packers since Jan. Some of packer has lost opportunity to pack goods when they had fruits. Currently most of all suppliers have some pending orders from Jan - Feb that will have to be carried over to Mar/Apr due to lacking of fruits supply / cans supply. Direction of foreign exchange rate is still unclear but it seems that Thai Baht will keep continuing appreciate against US dollar. Current rate is Bht 32.60 per one USD. The two factors have strong impact on packer costs / affect to pricing policy by adjust price increase in mid first half of year 2008 .
Thailand is expecting a total crop of 1.8 million mtons this year that a bit better than total production in year 2007 at 1.6 million mtons. Significant improvement is not expected until the Q3 of this year.