Nearby May orange juice on ICE Futures U.S. fell 425 points to $1.1340 a pound for a 3.6% decline from Tuesday's settlement, and July lost 400 points to settle at $1.1640, down 3.3%. "I can't say the news was altogether unexpected but it seemed to catch some traders by surprise.

Of course prices were headed lower even before the data came out," a broker said. The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in its April production report released Wednesday morning, raised the Florida 2007-08 orange production estimate by 1.5 million 90-pound boxes to total 168.5 million boxes.

Traders and analysts had expected the USDA to leave its Florida crop estimate unchanged or possibly raise it by 1 million to 2 million boxes to account for the stronger-than-expected harvest. Estimates of the early, midseason and navel varieties were up by 2% from the March report.

The Valencia estimate, or the crop that is currently being harvested, was left unchanged. The USDA also estimated the Florida FCOJ yield at 1.63 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from last month and down from last season's final yield of 1.65 gallons. Brix is the amount of soluble solids, essentially sugars, contained in the juice.

In other news, researchers at Colorado State University upwardly revised their initial December forecast for the 2008 hurricane season and now call for 15 named tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin, up from 13 in December.

They also forecast eight hurricanes, up from seven, and raised expected intense hurricanes to four from an initial projection of three. The forecast, while helping to take prices off their lows for a time, was much anticipated, and did not hold a bullish sway on prices, the broker said.

With the decline, technical traders may now target the $1.10 area on May orange juice before attempting to take prices higher again. It could even bring the recent low of $1.0525 back into play, an analyst said. Florida's citrus belt was mostly dry Tuesday, except for a few light showers in southern areas. Mostly dry conditions are seen this week, with the possibility of scattered showers and thundershowers on Sunday, DTN Meteorlogix said.

Total FCOJ open interest on Tuesday increased 741 contracts to 33,236 positions. In nearby May, traders liquidated 576 lots to total 12,757 positions but added 783 in July to total 14,947 lots. Futures volume at the settlement was estimated at 4,494 contracts. In the options, 56 calls and 73 puts traded. ICE Settle Change Range (At time of settlement) May $1.1340 dn 425 $1.1180-$1.1755 Jul $1.1640 dn 400 $1.1495-$1.2040


-By Tom Sellen, Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5177; tom.sellen@dowjones.com