AU: Early finish to short macadamia crop

Estimates of the 2009 Australian macadamia crop continue to fall as the full impact of severe weather conditions on both production and kernel recovery become clear. As at the end of July, some 30,300 tonnes nut in shell (NIS) has been received for processing according to figures provided by the Australian Macadamia Handlers Group who represent approximately 95% of the industry and adjusted by the Australian Macadamia Society to allow for non-participating entities.

This equates to an estimated 84% of the crop delivered and is in line with the previous 3 year average delivery curve. Based on these figures the Australian industry is heading for a final crop of 36,120 tonnes NIS or approximately 10,500 tonnes of kernel.

The AMS has previously revised the crop forecast downwards due to severe and prolonged adverse weather conditions around harvest. The original 47,600 tonnes forecast in March was reduced to 42,500 by May and to 39,000 in June.

The original crop prediction came from a crop model developed over 6 years by the Queensland Department of Primary Industry and Fisheries and the AMS. The model works on yield curves developed from historical records and incorporating tree number and age, varieties, climatic data for the growing season and pest and disease incidence.

While the result is disappointing, the AMS and the Handlers Group are committed to providing the market with accurate, credible and timely production information. The August estimates are based on actual receivals at factory gate and come with a high degree of confidence.

An actual crop figure will be released in early December.

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